But Trump is Gaining
As of today, the odds makers in Vegas are putting Hillary -225 and Donald a +175. For those of you not into gambling, that means that if you bet $100 on Hillary, you win $44. You would get your $100 back and $44 in winnings. You don’t even double your bet. If you bet $100 on Trump, you win $175. This means that Hillary is favored by around 2:1 to win, and the odds of Trump winning are almost 1:2 – or the reverse. That’s quite a differential. But it was worse a month ago. Trump has closed the gap somewhat. Hillary was -350. Still, the money is betting on Hillary. If Vegas thinks the odds are essentially even between the two, the “line” would be Hillary EVEN and Trump EVEN. Gary Johnson, the independent candidate, is +20,000 – meaning, if he won, a $100 bet would win you $20,000.
Why look at Vegas odds? Because those guys are usually right. They didn’t build Las Vegas by being bad at what they do. And setting the odds on things like this is exactly what they do. What do they know that we emotionally charged common people do not? What are they looking at which gives them the confidence to set these odds so strongly in Hillary’s favor?
Two Words: Electoral College.
You see, even if Trump gets more actual popular votes, it really doesn’t matter – he can still lose if he doesn’t get enough Electoral College votes. We are NOT a democracy, we are a Republic. In a Republic, the mass of votes doesn’t win the election, a majority of the Electoral votes (270) wins the election. Four times in history, a President has been elected that did not win the most votes, but won the most Electoral College votes. The last time was in 2000.
The only way you can really win is to get 270 of 538 Elector votes. The most important stat4es are California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, and Pennsylvania as they have the most Electoral votes. We know that California is a lost cause and goes to Hillary, so that’s 55 votes to Hillary. New York goes potentially to Trump, so that’s 29 to Trump. Texas goes to Trump, that’s another 38. Trump could win Florida, so that’s another 29 to Trump. Illinois probably goes to Hillary, and so does PA – so that’s another 42 combined to Hillary. Ohio goes to Hillary because of the assh*le Kasich, so that’s 18 to Hillary.
So far, that’s 118 to Hillary and 96 to Trump so far.
When I went through the rest of the states and just guessing, giving states to Trump that he might not win, like Alabama, Vermont, New Mexico or Iowa, I have Hillary with 289 and Trump with 249 – Trump Loses.
Looking at it this way makes it more clear to me that Trump is going to have to win a New Jersey, a Virginia, a Minnesota, a Wisconsin in order to make this close. He absolutely MUST win Florida, Texas, New York or he doesn’t stand a chance. If Trump can miraculously win Pennsylvania and Ohio, then he’s going to give her a run for her money. Short of that, this one looks like it’s already booked.
If 20% of voters come out and vote for Bernie, that could give Trump the edge he needs to win the most popular votes in a state, but maybe not the Electoral votes, so this could be one of those rare years in which a candidate wins the majority of the popular but doesn’t become President.
Barring a miracle such as Hillary being caught on video beating a gay black man in the street and kicking his poodle afterwards, it looks like it’s going to be Killary Email-Delete, Cover up, Lie-to-the-FBI Crookedness and her panty-wearing, lap-dog, Latino-pandering VP choice in the White House. And let’s face it folks, even if we did have a Killary video, she would just tell us that we didn’t see what we saw, and half of the numbtards in this country would believe her instead of their own two eyes.